War and conflict

At first glance, the MENA appears particularly unsuited to conducting foresight exercises due to its many disruptive and surprising developments. But it is precisely because the region features so many sudden events that foresight here is crucial. This Chaillot Paper opens with...

Baathists, jihadists, insurgents: stereotypes about the Sunni Arab community of Iraq abound. But what is the truth about this community? And how can their grievances be addressed?

Since the end of the Second World War, 2.3 million citizens in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have died as a result of political violence. This Brief explains what needs to be known about conflict in the MENA in order to support peace in the region.

This Report presents a number of grey swan scenarios which are designed to help decision-makers think about possible responses to crises and how they can be prevented.

This Brief seeks to explain why (and when) coups happen. What conditions are needed to persuade the military to attempt to topple a government? And what elements increase the likelihood of success or failure?

This Brief shows how, despite the distinct lack of regional integration, the MENA is a continuous space when it comes to conflict. What does the emergence of this ‘conflict Schengen’ mean for wars – and long-suffering civilians – in the region?